Early exit polls show Likud leading in Israeli elections

Oct 28 · Central Election Committee reports voter turnout of 77.7% Updated 03:56

The election took place on Tuesday amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. CBS News states the October 7, 2023 attacks led to the war in Gaza. The Central Election Committee reported a voter turnout of 77.7% as of 22:00 local time, totaling 5,695,682 individuals, which the committee noted is the highest recorded at that time since 1999. BBC reports exit polls project the bloc of Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the centrist Yashar party, to win approximately 52 seats and the bloc of Benjamin Netanyahu to win 50 seats. The Guardian reported exit polls indicating a tie between Netanyahu's governing bloc and Eisenkot's opposition bloc, with both at 51 seats, and projected Palestinian parties to win as many as 18 seats. CNN reports that Netanyahu's right-wing bloc saw a drop from 68 seats to approximately 51-52, while Eisenkot's bloc is projected at 49 seats. CNN further projects Arab parties, including the Joint List and Raam, to win 18-19 seats. Breitbart reports that Channel 14 projections show Netanyahu closer to a majority, while final results depend on the official count and the verification of over 650,000 special ballots. CBS News reports that both major blocs previously vowed not to rely on Arab parties for government formation, and CNBC reports that Avigdor Liberman refuses to work with Arab parties. The Guardian reports that Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra’am, has shown a willingness to compromise, while the Joint List has rejected Eisenkot's preconditions for coalition talks. CBS News reports that President Trump endorsed Netanyahu and suggested U.S. support for the war against Iran could waver if Netanyahu loses; CNN reports Trump called Netanyahu a 'Great Warrior Prime Minister' and suggested exit polls might be wrong. The Guardian reports that Netanyahu called for a strong right-wing government and opposed any coalition relying on Palestinian parties, while Eisenkot called for Netanyahu's retirement and warned against using security issues for political gain. CNN reports Eisenkot stated that the public has voted for change. The Guardian further reports that the Central Elections Committee rejected Netanyahu's request to extend polling hours and dismissed his claims of election tampering. CNBC reports that Eisenkot declared victory, citing a lack of confidence in Netanyahu's government following the October 7 attacks, and states the election served as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership, his corruption trial, and his handling of wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Dov Lieber is a CBS News senior reporter in Tel Aviv, Richard Engel is NBC News’ Chief Foreign Correspondent in Tel Aviv, and Matt Gutman filed a report from Tel Aviv regarding the election.

The projected seat gap between Gadi Eisenkot's bloc (52) and Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc (50) narrows the window for a clear winner and deepens the deadlock. CBS News identified a critical contradiction in the path to power: while Arab parties are the only viable kingmakers, both major blocs have previously vowed not to rely on them for government formation.

Coverage has expanded from internal parliamentary arithmetic to external geopolitical pressure. CBS News highlighted that President Trump's endorsement of Netanyahu includes a warning that U.S. support for the war against Iran could waver if the Prime Minister loses. This adds a layer of international stakes to the domestic coalition negotiations.

The Guardian analyzed the strategic dilemma facing the opposition, noting that the Joint List has already rejected Eisenkot's preconditions for talks. This suggests that the path to a new government requires more than just arithmetic; it requires the Zionist opposition to abandon traditional supremacy in favor of democratic cooperation.

Most outlets, including NBC News and PBS, agree that the country faces weeks of negotiations. However, they largely omit the specific policy concessions required to break the vow against partnering with Arab parties. Readers should now watch for whether either bloc retracts its pledge regarding Arab parties to avoid a minority government or new elections.