BLS releases September US wholesale inflation data

Oct 18 · Fox News poll shows voter dissatisfaction with inflation and government corruption Updated 15:24

Paul Krugman claimed on Substack that President Trump inherited a benign inflation environment but worsened it through war and tariffs. Krugman described the President's deal to buy Russian diesel as ineffective and shameful, and claimed that Trump is in denial about inflation data, which Krugman compared to Orwellian totalitarianism. Krugman also cited a Fox News poll showing voter dissatisfaction with government corruption and inflation.

The conversation is shifting from the economic mechanics of inflation to the political liability of the administration. Substack moves beyond the data to argue that the current inflation is not a geopolitical accident but a result of specific policy choices, namely tariffs and war [1].

This adds a layer of accountability to the question raised in the first analysis. While previous reports focused on how the Federal Reserve would react to energy shocks, the current critique suggests the shocks themselves were avoidable or exacerbated by executive action [1].

Coverage continues to omit the long-term structural energy dependencies mentioned in the first analysis. The focus remains on the immediate friction between economic data and political narratives ahead of the midterm elections.

Oct 16 · Labor Department reports September PPI annual increase of 6.3% Updated 07:08

The Labor Department reported a September PPI annual increase of 6.3%, the highest rate since December 2022, and a monthly increase of 1.3%, which Yahoo Finance reported as the largest in 4.5 years. MarketWatch reported that the PPI was expected to increase 0.6% in September, with a yearly rate of 5.5%, and that core PPI prices were projected to rise by 0.3%. The Daily Caller reported that final demand energy costs rose 10.8%, including a 20.3% increase in wholesale gasoline prices, and that the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates in September to a target range of 3.75% to 4%. PBS reported that diesel fuel cost increases have raised shipping, warehousing, and food costs, and that inflation-adjusted weekly paychecks for Americans have declined. The NY Post reported that President Trump attempted to lower diesel prices through reserve releases and a deal with Russia. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported that retail sales rose 0.8% in September, while Breitbart reported that these increases occurred across various sectors, including grocery and furniture stores. Yahoo Finance reported that the retail sales increase was stronger than expected and primarily due to higher gasoline prices rather than increased consumer volume. Economists told the NY Post that wholesale costs will likely lead to higher consumer prices for food and holiday goods, and told Yahoo Finance that inflation is outpacing wages amid a slowing labor market. MarketWatch reported that economist Alex Pelle stated price pressures are more intense in the broader economy than in the consumer sector and suggested this trend may lead to continued upward pressure on consumer prices. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reported that economists describe the current state as a 'K-shaped economy' where inflation outpacing wages creates financial strain for lower-income households, though the same outlet reported that initial unemployment claims remain near historic lows. Newsweek reported that consumer food prices remained flat in September. CNBC reported that seven surveyed economists expect September's core PCE to rise by 0.32%, compared to 0.25% in August, and that inflation has risen since the start of the Iran war and the introduction of tariffs in April 2025. Market analysts told the NY Post that the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates in December, and CNBC reported that Fed futures show a low probability of a rate hike this month but a high probability of one by December. Newsweek reported that polling indicates the economy and cost of living are primary concerns for voters ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, and that analysts suggest economic pressures from inflationary trends could negatively impact President Trump and Republican candidates. PBS reported that polling indicates significant voter disapproval of President Trump's handling of the economy and cost of living ahead of midterm elections. Breitbart reported that regional Fed factory surveys indicate continued manufacturing expansion.

Wholesale price surges are no longer a theoretical risk but a direct threat to consumer spending. NY Post identifies a critical tipping point where retailers can no longer absorb costs, meaning inflation will likely migrate to food and holiday goods. This confirms the first analysis's warning that businesses must eventually pass losses to consumers.

Yahoo Finance provides a crucial correction to the retail sales data. It clarifies that the apparent increase in sales was driven by higher gasoline prices rather than increased consumer volume, revealing that inflation is masking a decline in actual consumption.

Coverage now diverges on the solution. Daily Caller focuses on the Federal Reserve's reactive monetary policy, noting the September rate hike. In contrast, NY Post examines executive intervention, reporting that President Trump attempted to lower diesel prices through reserve releases and a deal with Russia.

Newsweek and PBS shift the focus toward the political fallout. They link the cost-of-living crisis to voter disapproval and the potential negative impact on Republican candidates in the November 3 midterm elections. This moves the conversation from purely economic mechanics to political accountability.

While these reports track immediate financial and political fallout, they omit the long-term structural energy dependencies mentioned in the first analysis. The focus remains on short-term price stabilization and election outcomes rather than the underlying vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.